While there are early signs that supply problems may be fading, trade channels have become so congested that the worst-affected industries may not return to normal operations until next year.

There are growing signs that the global supply chain crisis may begin to ease by the end of the year. The crisis has upended central bank inflation expectations, slowing economic recovery and squeezing corporate profit margins.

Beginning in 2020, many businesses responded to the downturn by canceling production plans for the following year, only to be surprised to learn that rapid vaccinations in rich countries and fiscal support for household spending have triggered a big rebound in demand.

Yet trade channels have become so congested that even assuming no new disruption from the new twist in the pandemic, the worst-affected industries may not fully return to normal until next year.